The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Alavés are favourites: 75% to win against 7%. Attack against defence: Alavés should create more, 1.76 expected goals a match against 0.95. Málaga are 2.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.