Athletic Club vs Real Madrid: match prediction
Athletic ClubVS
Real MadridThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win26%Athletic Club
Draw23%
Away win51%Real Madrid
Expected points, home1.02
What to expect
A slight edge to Real Madrid: 51% against 26%. Attack against defence: Real Madrid should create more, 1.92 expected goals a match against 1.41. Athletic Club are 4.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 7 | 11 | 16 | 20.2 | −4.2 | 1.80 | 1.30 |
| Real Madrid | 2 | 12 | 30 | 27.7 | +2.3 | 2.55 | 1.01 |
Recent matches
Osasuna — Athletic Club 1:1Athletic Club — 
Real Sociedad 2:1Athletic Club — 
Getafe 4:0
Levante — Athletic Club 3:1
Valencia — Athletic Club 0:0Valencia — Real Madrid 0:3
Racing Santander — Real Madrid 0:3
Barcelona — Real Madrid 1:2Real Madrid — 
Sevilla 4:1Real Madrid — 
Villarreal 1:0Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions