Pitch Radar

Barcelona vs Alavés: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 11 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win81%Barcelona
Draw12%
Away win8%Alavés
Expected points, home2.53

What to expect

Barcelona are favourites: 81% to win against 8%. Attack against defence: Barcelona should create more, 2.65 expected goals a match against 1.31. Read the table with care: Barcelona have taken 2.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Barcelona172118.4+2.64.201.11
Alavés671111.5−0.51.521.09

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →