The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Villarreal: 54% against 22%. Attack against defence: Villarreal should create more, 1.86 expected goals a match against 1.21. Villarreal are 7.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 | 0.98 | 1.23 |
| Villarreal | 12 | 9 | 9 | 16.7 | −7.7 | 2.49 | 1.45 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.