The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 37% home, 29% draw, 34% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.38 and 1.42 expected goals a match.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 0.90 | 1.54 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 7 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 1.30 | 1.86 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.