The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Rayo Vallecano: 51% against 24%. Attack against defence: level, 1.52 and 1.41 expected goals a match. Valencia are 4.1 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 13 | 8 | 9 | 10.1 | −1.1 | 1.43 | 1.74 |
| Valencia | 19 | 9 | 6 | 10.1 | −4.1 | 1.08 | 1.62 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.