Pitch Radar

Real Betis vs Málaga: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 11 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win76%Real Betis
Draw15%
Away win9%Málaga
Expected points, home2.42

What to expect

Real Betis are favourites: 76% to win against 9%. Attack against defence: Real Betis should create more, 1.94 expected goals a match against 1.32. Read the table with care: Real Betis have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Real Betis37169.8+6.21.881.83
Málaga20735.4−2.40.812.00

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →