The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Real Madrid are favourites: 66% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Real Madrid should create more, 1.86 expected goals a match against 1.25. Alavés are 2.9 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 3 | 9 | 21 | 20.6 | +0.4 | 2.58 | 1.07 |
| Alavés | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13.9 | −2.9 | 1.43 | 1.15 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.