Pitch Radar

Valencia vs Osasuna: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 14 · 29 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win43%Valencia
Draw27%
Away win31%Osasuna
Expected points, home1.54

What to expect

A slight edge to Valencia: 43% against 31%. Attack against defence: level, 1.46 and 1.44 expected goals a match. Valencia are 4.1 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Valencia199610.1−4.11.081.62
Osasuna16889.6−1.61.251.83

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →