Pitch Radar

Angers vs Marseille: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win66%Angers
Draw17%
Away win17%Marseille
Expected points, home2.15

What to expect

Angers are favourites: 66% to win against 17%. Attack against defence: Angers should create more, 2.05 expected goals a match against 1.60. Marseille are 2.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Angers7577.4−0.41.671.51
Marseille17535.3−2.31.702.43

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →