Auxerre vs Marseille: match prediction
AuxerreVS
MarseilleThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win35%Auxerre
Draw21%
Away win44%Marseille
Expected points, home1.27
What to expect
A slight edge to Marseille: 44% against 35%. Attack against defence: Marseille should create more, 1.93 expected goals a match against 1.70. Read the table with care: Marseille have taken 5.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
How they arrive
Recent matches
Auxerre — 
Paris FC 0:1
Strasbourg — Auxerre 5:1Auxerre — 
Le Mans 1:1
Le Havre — Auxerre 1:3
Rennes — Auxerre 4:1
Lens — Marseille 1:2Marseille — 
Toulouse 2:0Marseille — Le Havre 4:3
Angers — Marseille 2:5
Troyes — Marseille 0:2Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions