Pitch Radar

Brest vs Lyon: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 10 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win49%Brest
Draw24%
Away win27%Lyon
Expected points, home1.70

What to expect

A slight edge to Brest: 49% against 27%. Attack against defence: level, 1.67 and 1.57 expected goals a match. Brest are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Brest11559.8−4.82.171.16
Lyon25119.2+1.81.991.18

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →