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Lyon vs Marseille: match prediction

Lyon
VS
Marseille
Ligue 1 · Round 14 · 13 Dec 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win66%Lyon
Draw17%
Away win17%Marseille
Expected points, home2.15

What to expect

Lyon are favourites: 66% to win against 17%. Attack against defence: Lyon should create more, 1.93 expected goals a match against 1.52. Read the table with care: Marseille have taken 5.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lyon5101716.2+0.81.671.19
Marseille4101812.4+5.61.852.18

Recent matches

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions