Pitch Radar

Marseille vs Le Havre: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win52%Marseille
Draw20%
Away win28%Le Havre
Expected points, home1.77

What to expect

A slight edge to Marseille: 52% against 28%. Attack against defence: level, 1.88 and 1.87 expected goals a match. Le Havre are 2.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Marseille17535.3−2.31.702.43
Le Havre18524.4−2.41.312.06

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →