Pitch Radar

Nice vs Strasbourg: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 6 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win39%Nice
Draw25%
Away win36%Strasbourg
Expected points, home1.41

What to expect

No clear favourite: 39% home, 25% draw, 36% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.50 and 1.62 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Strasbourg have taken 2.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Nice14554.1+0.91.091.96
Strasbourg8574.6+2.41.291.92

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →