Pitch Radar

Troyes vs Marseille: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 6 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win42%Troyes
Draw21%
Away win37%Marseille
Expected points, home1.46

What to expect

No clear favourite: 42% home, 21% draw, 37% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.83 and 1.90 expected goals a match. Marseille are 2.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Troyes16544.0+0.11.242.10
Marseille17535.3−2.31.702.43

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →