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Troyes vs Rennes: match prediction

Troyes
VS
Rennes
Ligue 1 · Round 15 · 2 Jan 2027 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win32%Troyes
Draw21%
Away win47%Rennes
Expected points, home1.18

What to expect

A slight edge to Rennes: 47% against 32%. Attack against defence: Rennes should create more, 1.93 expected goals a match against 1.59. Troyes are 2.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Troyes1710810.8−2.81.191.60
Rennes8101616.3−0.32.261.99

Recent matches

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions