The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Rostov: 40% against 28%. Attack against defence: Rostov should create more, 1.24 expected goals a match against 0.96. Fakel Voronezh are 4.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh | 16 | 12 | 6 | 10.0 | −4.0 | 0.80 | 1.54 |
| Rostov | 7 | 12 | 15 | 14.8 | +0.2 | 0.93 | 1.11 |
They have already met this season: Rostov 3:1 Fakel Voronezh (2026-09-05).
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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