Orenburg vs Rodina Moscow: match prediction
OrenburgVS
Rodina MoscowThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win71%Orenburg
Draw18%
Away win11%Rodina Moscow
Expected points, home2.31
What to expect
Orenburg are favourites: 71% to win against 11%. Attack against defence: Orenburg should create more, 1.60 expected goals a match against 1.04. Orenburg are 3.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg | 10 | 14 | 17 | 20.3 | −3.3 | 1.33 | 1.14 |
| Rodina Moscow | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12.3 | −0.3 | 0.94 | 1.88 |
Head to head
They have already met this season: Rodina 2:2 FC Orenburg (2026-10-19).
Recent matches
Krylya Sovetov Samara — FC Orenburg 2:0FC Orenburg — 
CSKA Moscow 0:0
FK Akhmat — FC Orenburg 0:1Rodina — FC Orenburg 2:2FC Orenburg — 
Dynamo Makhachkala 4:0FK Akhmat — Rodina 1:0Rodina — 
FC Krasnodar 2:1
Fakel — Rodina 0:1Rodina — FC Orenburg 2:2CSKA Moscow — Rodina 3:0Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table → · RPL: next round predictions