Pitch Radar

Atalanta vs Inter: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 12 · 22 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win7%Atalanta
Draw10%
Away win84%Inter
Expected points, home0.30

What to expect

Inter are favourites: 84% to win against 7%. Attack against defence: Inter should create more, 2.72 expected goals a match against 1.31. Read the table with care: Atalanta have taken 3.9 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Atalanta10795.1+3.91.242.29
Inter171916.4+2.63.151.38

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →