Pitch Radar

Cagliari vs Bologna: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 8 · 25 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win25%Cagliari
Draw28%
Away win47%Bologna
Expected points, home1.02

What to expect

A slight edge to Bologna: 47% against 25%. Attack against defence: Bologna should create more, 1.59 expected goals a match against 1.15. Read the table with care: Cagliari have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Cagliari45125.8+6.21.091.75
Bologna18528.0−6.01.431.21

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →