Pitch Radar

Juventus vs Venezia: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 12 · 22 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win86%Juventus
Draw10%
Away win4%Venezia
Expected points, home2.68

What to expect

Juventus are favourites: 86% to win against 4%. Attack against defence: Juventus should create more, 2.15 expected goals a match against 1.15. Juventus are 4.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Juventus871115.7−4.71.740.53
Venezia20737.0−4.01.772.55

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →