Pitch Radar

Parma vs Bologna: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 11 · 8 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win14%Parma
Draw24%
Away win61%Bologna
Expected points, home0.67

What to expect

Bologna are favourites: 61% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Bologna should create more, 1.77 expected goals a match against 0.99. Bologna are 6.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Parma17643.5+0.50.782.12
Bologna19528.0−6.01.431.21

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →