The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza — Sassuolo | 2:1 | 1.61 : 2.27 | got lucky |
| Udinese — Cagliari | 0:1 | 1.85 : 0.64 | got lucky |
| Bologna — Torino | 1:1 | 0.70 : 0.96 | even by chances |
| Roma — Inter | 2:2 | 2.31 : 2.59 | even by chances |
| Venezia — Lazio | 0:2 | 1.85 : 1.77 | even by chances |
| Fiorentina — Napoli | 1:1 | 1.06 : 2.13 | dropped points |
| Frosinone — Como | 2:0 | 2.26 : 2.29 | even by chances |
| Parma — Genoa | 2:1 | 0.86 : 0.86 | even by chances |
| Juventus — Atalanta | 2:0 | 1.92 : 0.49 | deserved |
| AC Milan — Lecce | 3:0 | 2.48 : 0.22 | deserved |
Inter — 2.59 xG. Opponent: Roma. Result: a draw.
Udinese: 1.85 xG against the opponent's 0.64. Result: a defeat.