The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Freiburg | Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 3 | 6 |
| Points | 13 | 10 |
| xPTS | 11.2 | 5.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +1.8 | +4.6 |
| xG per match | 2.05 | 1.76 |
| xGA per match | 0.88 | 2.47 |
| Scored | 14 | 12 |
| Conceded | 4 | 11 |
By quality of play Freiburg is ahead: 11.2 xPTS against 5.4. In the table the gap is 3 points. The gap between points and play — Freiburg: +1.8, Elversberg: +4.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Freiburg — 9.4, Elversberg — 3.0.