The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Freiburg | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 3 | 4 |
| Points | 10 | 8 |
| xPTS | 8.8 | 4.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +1.2 | +3.1 |
| xG per match | 2.16 | 1.23 |
| xGA per match | 1.01 | 1.79 |
| Scored | 12 | 10 |
| Conceded | 3 | 10 |
By quality of play Freiburg is ahead: 8.8 xPTS against 4.9. In the table the gap is 2 points. The gap between points and play — Freiburg: +1.2, Werder Bremen: +3.1.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Freiburg — 9.2, Werder Bremen — 6.6.