The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Arsenal | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 2 | 3 |
| Points | 12 | 10 |
| xPTS | 9.8 | 9.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +2.2 | +0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.88 | 2.58 |
| xGA per match | 1.09 | 1.73 |
| Scored | 8 | 16 |
| Conceded | 4 | 5 |
By quality of play they are level: 9.8 xPTS against 9.2. The gap between points and play — Arsenal: +2.2, Brighton: +0.8.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Arsenal — 8.7, Brighton — 8.1.