The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Manchester City | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 2 |
| Points | 15 | 12 |
| xPTS | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +5.4 | +2.2 |
| xG per match | 2.21 | 1.88 |
| xGA per match | 1.44 | 1.09 |
| Scored | 13 | 8 |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 |
By quality of play they are level: 9.6 xPTS against 9.8. The gap between points and play — Manchester City: +5.4, Arsenal: +2.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Manchester City — 8.9, Arsenal — 8.7.