The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Coventry City | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 14 | 15 |
| Points | 6 | 5 |
| xPTS | 5.5 | 11.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.5 | −6.4 |
| xG per match | 1.11 | 2.04 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.21 |
| Scored | 5 | 5 |
| Conceded | 11 | 8 |
By quality of play Nottingham Forest is ahead: 11.4 xPTS against 5.5. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Coventry City: +0.5, Nottingham Forest: −6.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Coventry City — 5.4, Nottingham Forest — 8.2.