The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Manchester City | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 6 |
| Points | 15 | 9 |
| xPTS | 9.6 | 7.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +5.4 | +1.1 |
| xG per match | 2.21 | 1.65 |
| xGA per match | 1.44 | 1.39 |
| Scored | 13 | 7 |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 |
By quality of play Manchester City is ahead: 9.6 xPTS against 7.9. In the table the gap is 6 points. The gap between points and play — Manchester City: +5.4, Liverpool: +1.1.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Manchester City — 8.9, Liverpool — 6.6.