The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Elche | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 15 | 16 |
| Points | 10 | 9 |
| xPTS | 11.5 | 10.6 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −1.5 | −1.6 |
| xG per match | 1.32 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.96 | 1.81 |
| Scored | 14 | 12 |
| Conceded | 17 | 20 |
By quality of play they are level: 11.5 xPTS against 10.6. The gap between points and play — Elche: −1.5, Rayo Vallecano: −1.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Elche — 5.6, Rayo Vallecano — 6.3.