The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Krasnodar | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 4 | 6 |
| Points | 23 | 16 |
| xPTS | 17 | 17.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +6.0 | −1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.23 | 1.39 |
| xGA per match | 1.11 | 1.13 |
| Scored | 20 | 14 |
| Conceded | 14 | 12 |
By quality of play they are level: 17.0 xPTS against 17.9. The gap between points and play — Krasnodar: +6.0, Orenburg: −1.9.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Krasnodar — 7.7, Orenburg — 8.1.