The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Orenburg | Krylia Sovetov | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 8 | 9 |
| Points | 12 | 12 |
| xPTS | 16.1 | 15.3 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.0 | −3.3 |
| xG per match | 1.38 | 1.43 |
| xGA per match | 0.94 | 1.17 |
| Scored | 11 | 14 |
| Conceded | 10 | 15 |
By quality of play they are level: 16.1 xPTS against 15.3. The gap between points and play — Orenburg: −4.0, Krylia Sovetov: −3.3.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Orenburg — 8.2, Krylia Sovetov — 8.3.