The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Rubin Kazan | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 7 | 8 |
| Points | 12 | 12 |
| xPTS | 10.3 | 16.1 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +1.7 | −4.0 |
| xG per match | 0.99 | 1.38 |
| xGA per match | 1.31 | 0.94 |
| Scored | 12 | 11 |
| Conceded | 11 | 10 |
By quality of play Orenburg is ahead: 16.1 xPTS against 10.3. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Rubin Kazan: +1.7, Orenburg: −4.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Rubin Kazan — 5.6, Orenburg — 8.2.