The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Rostov | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 8 | 9 |
| Points | 12 | 12 |
| xPTS | 12.5 | 16.1 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −0.5 | −4.0 |
| xG per match | 0.83 | 1.38 |
| xGA per match | 1.15 | 0.94 |
| Scored | 11 | 11 |
| Conceded | 17 | 10 |
By quality of play Orenburg is ahead: 16.1 xPTS against 12.5. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Rostov: −0.5, Orenburg: −4.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Rostov — 5.3, Orenburg — 8.3.