The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Zenit | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 6 |
| Points | 27 | 16 |
| xPTS | 21.7 | 17.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +5.3 | −1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.61 | 1.39 |
| xGA per match | 0.98 | 1.13 |
| Scored | 27 | 14 |
| Conceded | 13 | 12 |
By quality of play Zenit is ahead: 21.7 xPTS against 17.9. In the table the gap is 11 points. The gap between points and play — Zenit: +5.3, Orenburg: −1.9.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Zenit — 8.3, Orenburg — 8.1.