The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Bologna | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 11 | 12 |
| Points | 11 | 11 |
| xPTS | 14.5 | 8.8 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −3.5 | +2.2 |
| xG per match | 1.63 | 1.58 |
| xGA per match | 1.45 | 2.16 |
| Scored | 12 | 16 |
| Conceded | 12 | 17 |
By quality of play Bologna is ahead: 14.5 xPTS against 8.8. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Bologna: −3.5, Atalanta: +2.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Bologna — 8.8, Atalanta — 5.2.