The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Inter | Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 2 |
| Points | 16 | 13 |
| xPTS | 13.9 | 12.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +2.1 | +0.6 |
| xG per match | 3.08 | 3.22 |
| xGA per match | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| Scored | 18 | 14 |
| Conceded | 8 | 3 |
By quality of play Inter is ahead: 13.9 xPTS against 12.4. In the table the gap is 3 points. The gap between points and play — Inter: +2.1, Roma: +0.6.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Inter — 10.7, Roma — 11.7.