The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Parma | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 16 | 17 |
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPTS | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.5 | −1.2 |
| xG per match | 0.78 | 1.18 |
| xGA per match | 2.12 | 2.48 |
| Scored | 4 | 9 |
| Conceded | 10 | 16 |
By quality of play Udinese is ahead: 5.2 xPTS against 3.5. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Parma: +0.5, Udinese: −1.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Parma — 4.1, Udinese — 3.5.