Serie A fantasy: who to pick for Round 12
The list comes from two things: how much a player creates per 90 minutes (xG + xA) and how favourable his club's next match is. We know nothing about injuries or rotation — this is a hint, not a line-up.
Who to pick
Output per 90 minutes multiplied by the points his club is expected to take in the next match.
| Player | Club | Opponent | xG+xA per 90 | Club's chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen |  Roma | away to Parma | 1.65 | 83% | 1.43 |
| Lautaro Martínez |  Inter | away to Atalanta | 1.62 | 70% | 1.22 |
| Paulo Dybala | Roma | away to Parma | 1.18 | 83% | 1.02 |
| Rodrigo Mora | Roma | away to Parma | 1.18 | 83% | 1.02 |
| Santiago Castro | Roma | away to Parma | 0.98 | 83% | 0.85 |
| Marcus Thuram | Inter | away to Atalanta | 1.07 | 70% | 0.81 |
| Kevin De Bruyne |  Napoli | home to Torino | 0.97 | 65% | 0.70 |
| Tasos Douvikas |  Como | home to Cagliari | 0.80 | 74% | 0.64 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano | Roma | away to Parma | 0.72 | 83% | 0.62 |
| Mattia Zaccagni |  Lazio | home to Lecce | 0.78 | 73% | 0.61 |
| Nick Woltemade |  Juventus | home to Venezia | 0.67 | 75% | 0.54 |
| Christian Pulisic |  AC Milan | home to Frosinone | 0.75 | 65% | 0.53 |
Running hot
Scoring more than their chances are worth. Finishing like that rarely holds: they cost a lot and the return can drop.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Varela |  Monza | 9 | 4.99 | +4.0 |
| Adrien Rabiot | AC Milan | 5 | 1.83 | +3.2 |
| Giacomo Calo |  Frosinone | 5 | 2.28 | +2.7 |
| Gustav Isaksen | Lazio | 4 | 1.83 | +2.2 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu | Inter | 3 | 1.04 | +2.0 |
| Daniel Maldini |  Cagliari | 5 | 3.17 | +1.8 |
Owed goals
The chances are there, the goals are not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will probably come back — and they are cheap now.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Yeboah |  Venezia | 1 | 4.32 | −3.3 |
| Gonçalo Ramos | AC Milan | 2 | 5.26 | −3.3 |
| Willem Geubbels |  Lecce | 0 | 2.86 | −2.9 |
| Paulo Dybala | Roma | 0 | 2.30 | −2.3 |
| Armand Lauriente |  Sassuolo | 0 | 2.08 | −2.1 |
| Farès Ghedjemis | Frosinone | 1 | 3.04 | −2.0 |
Understat data, refreshed twice a day. We do not give betting tips and we do not know about injuries or suspensions — check the line-ups.
Who to pick in Serie A fantasy for Round 12?
Top of our list: Donyell Malen (Roma; opponent: Parma, away); Lautaro Martínez (Inter; opponent: Atalanta, away); Paulo Dybala (Roma; opponent: Parma, away). The list is built from a player's output per 90 minutes and the strength of his club's next match; we do not know about injuries and rotation, so check them before choosing.
How is the Serie A fantasy ranking calculated?
For each player we take xG and xA per 90 minutes (how much he creates and scores by chance quality) and multiply by his club's expected points in the next match divided by three. Players with at least 270 minutes are included: 76 right now. It is an assessment of play, not a forecast and not betting.
Who in Serie A scores more than his chances are worth?
Gustavo Varela (Monza) is furthest above xG: 9 goals from 5.0 xG, 4.0 more. Finishing like that usually does not hold all season, so paying a lot for such a player is risky.
Who in Serie A has fewer goals than his chances are worth?
John Yeboah (Venezia) is furthest below xG: 1 goal from 4.3 xG, 3.3 fewer. If the chance quality holds, goals usually move toward xG, but over a handful of matches that is no guarantee.