The list comes from two things: how much a player creates per 90 minutes (xG + xA) and how favourable his club's next match is. We know nothing about injuries or rotation — this is a hint, not a line-up.
Output per 90 minutes multiplied by the points his club is expected to take in the next match.
| Player | Club | Opponent | xG+xA per 90 | Club's chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez | Inter | home to Parma | 1.56 | 92% | 1.46 |
| Donyell Malen | Roma | away to Como | 1.63 | 58% | 1.05 |
| Paulo Dybala | Roma | away to Como | 1.33 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito | Inter | home to Parma | 0.85 | 92% | 0.80 |
| Federico Dimarco | Inter | home to Parma | 0.73 | 92% | 0.68 |
| John Yeboah | Venezia | away to Atalanta | 0.90 | 55% | 0.56 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano | Roma | away to Como | 0.85 | 58% | 0.55 |
| Andy Diouf | Inter | home to Parma | 0.50 | 92% | 0.47 |
| Nicolò Barella | Inter | home to Parma | 0.47 | 92% | 0.44 |
| Federico Bernardeschi | Bologna | away to Lecce | 0.59 | 65% | 0.42 |
| Mattia Zaccagni | Lazio | home to Monza | 0.84 | 43% | 0.42 |
| Gustavo Varela | Monza | away to Lazio | 0.98 | 35% | 0.41 |
Scoring more than their chances are worth. Finishing like that rarely holds: they cost a lot and the return can drop.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Varela | Monza | 4 | 2.62 | +1.4 |
| Giorgi Kvernadze | Frosinone | 3 | 1.73 | +1.3 |
| Davide Frattesi | Lazio | 3 | 1.75 | +1.2 |
| Assane Diao | Como | 2 | 0.80 | +1.2 |
| Adrien Rabiot | AC Milan | 2 | 0.97 | +1.0 |
| Antonio Raimondo | Frosinone | 4 | 3.01 | +1.0 |
The chances are there, the goals are not. If the chance quality holds, the goals come back — and they are cheap now.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Dybala | Roma | 0 | 1.86 | −1.9 |
| Armand Lauriente | Sassuolo | 0 | 1.72 | −1.7 |
| Tasos Douvikas | Como | 2 | 3.62 | −1.6 |
| John Yeboah | Venezia | 1 | 2.47 | −1.5 |
| Gonçalo Ramos | AC Milan | 1 | 2.33 | −1.3 |
| Mattia Zaccagni | Lazio | 1 | 2.27 | −1.3 |
Understat data, refreshed twice a day. We do not give betting tips and we do not know about injuries or suspensions — check the line-ups.