Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen: match prediction

Borussia Dortmund

VS

Bayer Leverkusen

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

What to expect

A slight edge to Borussia Dortmund: 48% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 1.71 and 1.71 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Borussia Dortmund have taken 5.3 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Borussia Dortmund	2	9	21	15.7	+5.3	1.79	1.32
Bayer Leverkusen	5	9	16	15.3	+0.7	2.10	1.63

Recent matches

Borussia Dortmund — Elversberg 2:1Bayern Munich — Borussia Dortmund 2:2Borussia Dortmund — Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund 0:0Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen 2:2

FC Cologne — Bayer Leverkusen 1:2Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart 2:4Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen 3:0Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg 2:1Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen 3:4

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions