The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 36% home, 23% draw, 41% away. Attack against defence: Bayer Leverkusen should create more, 1.89 expected goals a match against 1.62. 1. FC Köln are 2.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 12 | 7 | 8 | 10.7 | −2.7 | 1.81 | 1.64 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | 13 | 13.0 | −0.0 | 2.14 | 1.43 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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