Mainz 05 vs Freiburg: match prediction

Mainz 05

VS

Freiburg

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

What to expect

No clear favourite: 38% home, 24% draw, 38% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.63 and 1.77 expected goals a match. Mainz 05 are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Mainz 05	12	9	10	14.8	−4.8	2.07	1.74
Freiburg	3	9	19	16.8	+2.2	1.79	1.19

Recent matches

Mainz 05 — Bayern Munich 1:2Elversberg — Mainz 05 4:1Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen 2:3Schalke 04 — Mainz 05 0:1Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen 3:4

Freiburg — Union Berlin 2:0Augsburg — Freiburg 1:2Freiburg — Bayern Munich 1:3Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg 2:1Freiburg — Schalke 04 2:1

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions