The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Athletic Club are favourites: 55% to win against 23%. Attack against defence: Athletic Club should create more, 1.87 expected goals a match against 1.29. Athletic Club are 4.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 7 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 1.30 | 1.86 |
| Athletic Club | 10 | 6 | 8 | 12.2 | −4.2 | 1.88 | 1.28 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.