The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Rayo Vallecano: 51% against 27%. Attack against defence: level, 1.77 and 1.63 expected goals a match. Elche are 2.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 7 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 1.30 | 1.86 |
| Elche | 18 | 7 | 5 | 7.5 | −2.5 | 1.40 | 2.24 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.