The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Real Madrid are favourites: 77% to win against 8%. Attack against defence: Real Madrid should create more, 1.98 expected goals a match against 1.06. Celta Vigo are 1.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 3 | 8 | 18 | 18.6 | −0.6 | 2.64 | 1.04 |
| Celta Vigo | 15 | 7 | 7 | 8.7 | −1.7 | 1.09 | 1.31 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.