The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Real Madrid are favourites: 82% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Real Madrid should create more, 2.31 expected goals a match against 0.96. Valencia are 1.9 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 19 | 7 | 4 | 5.8 | −1.9 | 0.81 | 1.81 |
| Real Madrid | 4 | 7 | 15 | 16.5 | −1.5 | 2.81 | 1.11 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.