Pitch Radar

Auxerre vs Le Mans: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win42%Auxerre
Draw22%
Away win36%Le Mans
Expected points, home1.48

What to expect

No clear favourite: 42% home, 22% draw, 36% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.73 and 1.85 expected goals a match.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Auxerre10565.7+0.31.372.14
Le Mans9565.2+0.81.562.09

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →