Auxerre vs Toulouse: match prediction
AuxerreVS
ToulouseThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win20%Auxerre
Draw22%
Away win59%Toulouse
Expected points, home0.81
What to expect
Toulouse are favourites: 59% to win against 20%. Attack against defence: Toulouse should create more, 1.88 expected goals a match against 1.23. Toulouse are 5.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
Recent matches
Auxerre — 
Paris FC 0:1
Strasbourg — Auxerre 5:1Auxerre — 
Le Mans 1:1
Le Havre — Auxerre 1:3
Rennes — Auxerre 4:1Toulouse — Strasbourg 3:1
Marseille — Toulouse 2:0Toulouse — 
Troyes 0:0Le Mans — Toulouse 0:3
Monaco — Toulouse 2:2Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions