The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Toulouse are favourites: 73% to win against 11%. Attack against defence: Toulouse should create more, 1.86 expected goals a match against 1.23. Toulouse are 4.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 11 | 8 | 10 | 14.4 | −4.5 | 1.82 | 1.31 |
| Strasbourg | 16 | 8 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 1.14 | 1.91 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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